VFTx Model
Match Outcome 1X2 Evaluation Framework
VFTx stands for Value–Form–Trend with variable timeframe (x). It is a data-driven model designed to evaluate football (soccer) match outcomes based on core performance and quality indicators over a customizable recent time window.
Model Components
- V – Market Value (35%)
- Represents total squad value as a proxy for team strength and depth.
- Adjusted for missing key players (injuries/suspensions).
- Normalized across both teams.
- F – Recent Form (20%)
- Analyzes results from the last x weeks or matches.
- Uses weighted scoring (most recent games count more).
- Can include goal difference or xG-based metrics.
- T – Growth Trend (15%)
- Measures directional momentum: improving or declining.
- Derived from form trajectory, scoring consistency, injury recoveries, etc.
- Assigned as a +1 (up), 0 (flat), or -1 (down) impact score.
- x – Time-Scoped Modifiers
- All relevant data (form, trend, common opponents, and head-to-head) is limited to the last x months (user-defined).
- Common default: x = 6 months for balanced recency.
- Common Opponent Analysis (20%)
- Optional if applicable within x.
- Compares both teams’ results against mutual recent opponents.
- Skipped if no overlap within the x-month window.
- Recent Head-to-Head (10%)
- Only includes matches played in the past x months.
- If no valid H2H exists in that window, this factor is skipped.
Scoring & Weighting
| Factor | Default Weight |
|---|---|
| Market Value (V) | 35% |
| Recent Form (F) | 20% |
| Growth Trend (T) | 15% |
| Common Opponents | 20% |
| Recent Head-to-Head | 10% |
Weights can be rebalanced depending on league competitiveness, season phase, or model tuning needs.
Use Case
VFTx is ideal for:
- Match prediction models
- Betting analysis
- Pre-match previews for media/fans
- Scouting team tendencies
📊 VFTx Case Study: Cagliari vs Fiorentina
Match Date: April 21, 2025
Model Version: VFT6 (last 6 months of data)
🔹 Factor 1: Market Value (35%)
- Cagliari Squad Value: €78.9M
- Fiorentina Squad Value: €281.8M
- Normalized Share:
- Cagliari: 22%
- Fiorentina: 78%
✅ Edge: Fiorentina
Score Contribution: Fiorentina +35 points
🔹 Factor 2: Recent Form (20%)
Cagliari – Last 5 Matches:
- W 3-0 vs Monza
- D 0-0 vs Empoli
- L 1-3 vs Inter
- L 0-1 vs Roma
- D 1-1 vs Genoa
Fiorentina – Last 5 Matches:
- W 1-0 vs Atalanta
- D 2-2 vs Milan
- W 2-1 vs Celje (UECL)
- D 0-0 vs Parma
- D 2-2 vs Celje (UECL)
✅ Edge: Fiorentina (unbeaten streak)
Score Contribution: Fiorentina +20 points
🔹 Factor 3: Growth Trend (15%)
- Cagliari: Mixed signals, no real improvement → Trend: ⬇️
- Fiorentina: Unbeaten, steady form → Trend: ⬆️
✅ Edge: Fiorentina
Score Contribution: Fiorentina +15 points
🔹 Factor 4: Common Opponents (20%)
- ✅ No shared opponents in last 6 months
🔁 Factor Skipped → 0 points added
🔹 Factor 5: Recent Head-to-Head (10%)
- Dec 8, 2024: Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari
- Match falls within 6-month window
✅ Edge: Fiorentina
Score Contribution: Fiorentina +10 points
✅ Final Score Summary:
| Team | V | F | T | C | H | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fiorentina | 35 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 80 |
📈 Conclusion:
Based on the VFT6 model, Fiorentina holds a dominant advantage:
- Superior squad value
- Stronger recent form
- Positive trend
- Recent H2H win
👉 Prediction: Fiorentina favored
(VFT6 Score: 80–0)