The EGFO Model is a structured analytical framework designed to predict football match outcomes and calculate fair betting odds. It uses recent performance data—specifically goals scored and conceded in home and away games—to estimate expected goals for both teams and calculate probabilities for key betting markets like over/under goals.
How It Works
- Data Collection
Collect the last 10 home games for the home team and the last 10 away games for the away team. - Calculate Averages
Compute average goals scored and conceded (home and away). - Expected Goals (xG)
- Home Team xG = (Home Goals Scored Avg + Away Goals Conceded Avg) ÷ 2
- Away Team xG = (Away Goals Scored Avg + Home Goals Conceded Avg) ÷ 2
- Total Expected Goals
Add both team xG numbers. - Probability Distribution
Use a Poisson model to simulate scorelines and calculate probabilities. - Fair Odds
Convert probabilities to odds: Fair Odds = 1 ÷ Probability
Example: Gabala vs. Qaradag Lokbatan
Gabala – Last 10 Home Games
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2025 | Energetik Mingechevir | 2-0 |
| 28/02/2025 | FK Karvan | 2-0 |
| 30/01/2025 | Baku Sporting FC | 0-0 |
| 13/12/2024 | Cəbrayıl FK | 2-0 |
| 04/12/2024 | Qarabag Agdam (Cup) | 0-2 |
| 07/11/2024 | MOIK Baku | 3-0 |
| 31/10/2024 | Baku Sporting FC (Cup) | 4-0 |
| 26/10/2024 | Imisli | 0-0 |
| 19/10/2024 | Difai FK | 1-0 |
| 15/09/2024 | Qarabag FK | 1-0 |
- Goals Scored (Home): 15
- Goals Conceded (Home): 2
Averages:
- Goals Scored: 1.5
- Goals Conceded: 0.2
Qaradag Lokbatan – Last 10 Away Games
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2025 | Zaqatala | 0-0 |
| 14/02/2025 | Baku Sportinq | 2-3 |
| 07/02/2025 | Mingəçevir | 1-1 |
| 20/02/2025 | Difai Ağsu | 1-2 |
| 06/03/2025 | MOIK | 2-2 |
| 15/12/2024 | Sabah Baku | 0-2 |
| 01/12/2024 | Turan Tovuz | 1-3 |
| 20/11/2024 | Kapaz | 0-1 |
| 01/10/2024 | Neftchi Baku | 0-4 |
| 15/09/2024 | Qarabag FK | 1-2 |
- Goals Scored (Away): 8
- Goals Conceded (Away): 20
Averages:
- Goals Scored: 0.8
- Goals Conceded: 2.0
Expected Goals
- Gabala xG: (1.5 + 2.0) ÷ 2 = 1.75
- Qaradag Lokbatan xG: (0.8 + 0.2) ÷ 2 = 0.50
- Total Expected Goals: 1.75 + 0.50 = 2.25
Fair Odds (Using Poisson Model)
- Probability of Over 2.5 Goals: 40%
- Probability of Under 2.5 Goals: 60%
Fair Odds:
Over 2.5 Goals: 1 ÷ 0.40 = 2.50
Under 2.5 Goals: 1 ÷ 0.60 = 1.67
The Poisson distribution is used to calculate the probability of a team scoring a specific number of goals in a match, based on their expected goals (xG).
